Points and Miles Predictions

2025 promises to be full of the unexpected, but what can we anticipate when it comes to points and miles? 

Here are seven predictions I have for the year ahead:

Prediction 1: Credit cards will include special one-time statement credits as part of a limited-time offer. 

Traditionally, credit card companies offer a big pot of bonus points or miles to entice you to sign up for a card. 

That’s not going away, but we saw a new trend emerge last year. Multiple credit cards—from several different issuers—included a one-time statement credit as part of a card’s limited-time offer. That’s in addition to an elevated amount of bonus points or miles. 

I expect this trend to continue with credit card offers in 2025.

The reason is simple. One-time statement credits provide a tangible, easy-to-use benefit. It’s harder to imagine how to use 75k bonus miles, but a $300 credit in the travel portal? That translates to a free night in a hotel. 

That said, I think a card’s bonus points are still the most valuable part of a signup bonus. Stick with us here at Going and we’ll show you ways to use those points and miles. 

Check out the best card offers available now. 

Prediction 2: More co-branded airline credit cards will become powerful tools to earn elite status. 

Nearly all major US carriers tie elite status to dollars spent with the airline, not actual miles flown. 

As a result, some co-branded airline credit cards (usually the pricer, more premium options) offer elite status headstarts or the ability to earn elite status points through credit card spending. 

I predict this trend will accelerate. I wouldn’t be surprised for co-branded airline credit cards to increase the amount of the elite status headstart cardholders receive annually, or even start to offer elite status points as part of a card’s limited-time offer.

Learn more about airline co-branded cards.

Prediction 3: Amex will lose Hawaiian Airlines as a transfer partner. 

As part of its merger with Hawaiian Airlines, Alaska Airlines announced it will roll out a “single combined loyalty program” in 2025. 

Currently, Hawaiian Airlines is a transfer partner with American Express Membership Rewards, but I predict that Amex will lose Hawaiian as a casualty of this new loyalty program. 

Prediction 4: Another airline will devalue its awards. 

Award devaluation is inflation in points and miles. When airlines raise the number of miles needed to book an award flight, your current stash of miles and points loses value because you need to use more for a redemption. 

Last year, we saw Virgin Atlantic and Avianca LifeMiles devalue their miles, raising the amount of miles it’ll cost you to book a ticket. 

I predict that this will happen again this year. I predict that at least one US airline (my guess is American) and one international airline (Air Canada is my prediction here) will devalue its awards. 

But don’t expect a big news release about this. Award devaluations are more likely to happen in the dark of the night.

Prediction 5: We’ll see a one-time 20% sale for redemptions to Australia.

Australia is one of the top places Going members want to use their points and miles to visit. 

And in 2024, we spotted several economy class points deals to Australia for 80k.

I predict that at least once in 2025, we’ll see points deals to Australia for at least 20% less—64k points roundtrip or fewer. 

Prediction 6: We’ll see two points and miles mistake fares in 2025.

Mistake fares—when an airline lists a ticket at substantially lower prices because of human error—are the holy grail for fans of cheap flights. They’re rare in cash fares, and even rarer in points and miles fares because of preset award charts.

Still, they can happen, and I’m bullish about this year. I predict we’ll see not one, but two mistake fares in 2025.

My guess is we’ll see on mistake fare to Oceania and one mistake fare to Europe. 

Prediction 7: The Going app will send you exciting and unexpected points deals.

Ok, this can’t be considered a prediction because I’m 100% confident on this one. 

Download our app, subscribe, and you won’t miss a deal. 

Results of 2024 predictions

Annual fees will continue to rise—and so will authorized user fees.

• Verdict: Correct. Annual fees rose on several American Express cards, as well as authorized user fees on the Platinum Card® from American Express. 
• Bonus points: The application fee to Global Entry also increased. 

HawaiianMiles—and the Alaska Mileage Plan miles—are going to get a lot more valuable.

• Verdict: Correct. You can now transfer Hawaiian miles to Alaska 1:1.

Airline status will get harder to earn—but premium co-branded credit cards will help.

• Verdict: Correct. United Airlines tightened the standards to qualify by 20% or higher. Several co-branded cards can now earn more PQPs per year.

My favorite travel card will offer 3X points for travel.

• Verdict: Wrong. The rate stayed the same. But to be fair, I called this more of a wishlist item than a prediction last year.

The Centurion Lounge would become reservation-only.

• Verdict: Wrong. However, unless you spent $75K on your Platinum Card last year, cardholders will now have limits to the number of visits per year, starting February 1.

Capital One will finally have a domestic airline transfer partner.

• Verdict: Wrong. We can only hope. 

Citi will continue to be MIA in the premium travel credit card space.

• Verdict: Correct. They refreshed the Citi Premier Strata card, but that’s in the entry-level range. Citi doesn’t want to seem to compete in the luxury/premium segment.

Total: 4/7